it's tom hooper (royal) vs david fincher (commoner).
i believe fincher gets the oscar here as 'the king' walks away with the top prize. however hooper won the dga. it's a horse race to the finish but at this point fincher by a nose. personally i'd go chris nolan for 'inception' but for some god forsaken reason he did not score a nomination. fincher gets it as the commoner cannot be ignored as 'the king's speech' proved.
it's a done deal. anyone other than colin firth would be a sham and the major upset of the season. enough said!
first it was benning. then portman. now it's dead heat on the oscar merry-go -round. do they go benning for a lifetime achievement as they did last year with jeff brigges over colin firth or do they go performance and justly award natalie portman? i'm thinking they are smarter than we think. but then again who will the elders vote for? the long standing joke is dolores hope. will she 'get' portman? and then if she does on the other hand won't the dirty old men like jerry lewis and ernest borgine go for the younger sexier (don't forget the lesbian kiss...these old straight geezers love that!) portman. it's portman by a nose at this point but benning's husband, warren beatty, has influence and friends and then more friends. clear a space on your mantle natalie.
a month ago this was melissa leo's ('the fighter') to lose. a self promotion blunder gone awry knocked her down a peg or three. she is in contention with co-star amy adams also. split votes i believe. actually i say ms. adams gave the better performance of the two. ms. leo was just too 'methody' for me. over acting, over the top...thus me thinks for ms. leo it is just over. then there is helena bonham carter for 'the king's speech'. is this her time? it's been 13 years since 'the wings of the dove' brought her to international attention. she has worked ever since commanding attention in everything she appears in. she is now in the front runner for best film. adams and leo split. voters going down ballot sweep her in with picture and mr. firth. it is bonham carter's award to lose now and she would be royally worthy.
only a royal sweep gets geoffrey rush his second oscar. it would be deserving indeed. but this category is still owned by christian bale as it should be. the only wonderful thing that could really happen would be a tie. trust me...it will not happen.
this is the state of the race. i keep up with it. i read everything i can on it. it's the gay super bowl for gods sake. yes gods not god's.
later this week i'll give my final thoughts including tech awards most all of which i'd give 'inception'. but i wonder if most academy members know the difference between visual effects and cinematography? i wonder. if yes 'inception' gets it. if not it's a toss up between the royal and the commoner again. thus we end where we began.